Why Your Best Reps Can't Hit the Same Numbers They Did in 2021

If your top performers are working harder than ever but closing less than they did in 2022, you're not alone. And it's not your fault.

Quota attainment collapsed from 53% in Q1 2022 to 42.8% by Q3 2023. Deal slippage doubled from 12% to 22%. By end of 2023, only 28% of sales professionals expected to hit their number.

When your best rep is now at 70% attainment despite working weekends, that's not a coaching problem. That's evidence the game changed.

The Market Shifted. Here's How It Shows Up in Your Pipeline.

You've likely heard the macro story: interest rates went from 0% to 5%, financial gatekeepers multiplied, AI created "wait and see" behavior. (Our CEO wrote about why this happened →)

But what does that actually look like at the deal level?

Your coverage ratios don't work anymore. If you're still using 3x pipeline coverage based on 2021 conversion rates, you're systematically under-resourced.

The math that broke:

• 2022: 3x coverage × 30% stage-to-close = hit the number
• 2025: 3x coverage × 20% stage-to-close = miss by 33%

Your reps aren't generating enough pipeline because coverage shifted from 3x to 4.5x, but nobody told them.

Your forecast keeps missing—and it's not a CRM problem. Only 20% of sales orgs achieve forecasts within 10% of projections. 43% miss by 10% or more. This isn't sandbagging or dirty data. Your forecast model assumptions of cycle length, stage conversion, close probability—are all based on an outdated buyer behavior.

Deal slippage became the norm. 76% of deals now lack a compelling event. Your AE thinks they're in late-stage because the champion loves the solution, but it sits in finance review for eight weeks. What used to close in 45 days now takes 75+.

A Quick Example: Same Deal, Different World

Consider a $75K outbound sales services contract.

2022: Upfront payment, VP Sales signature, 45-day cycle, loose performance goals.

2026: Monthly payments with milestones, VP + CFO + sometimes CEO approval, 90+ day cycle, specific exit clauses if goals aren't met.

Same service. Completely different buying process. If you're still positioning with 2022 terms, you're asking buyers to take risks they won't take.

What to Do About It

The sales leaders seeing better results aren't the ones with better reps, they acknowledged the market changed and adapted.

1. Reset quotas to current reality. Pull attainment data from 2022-2025. Calculate actual conversion rates for the past 12 months. Reset quotas based on current performance, not historical. This isn't lowering the bar, it's recalibrating to reality.

2. Requalify your pipeline. Old qualification: Budget confirmed, champion identified, timeline established. New qualification: Budget + financial approval process mapped, champion + power map through all stakeholders, timeline + compelling event confirmed. If they don't buy your product or service, what pain do they face?!

3. Update your forecast model. Extend cycle assumptions by 20-30%. Lower stage conversion rates. Increase slippage assumptions to 20-22%. Adjust coverage to 4-5x.

4. Coach to new buyer behaviors. Your reps need multi-stakeholder management, CFO-language fluency, compelling event creation, and deal de-risking skills. Process adherence isn't enough anymore.

5. Protect your top performers. When your best reps work harder but earn less, they interview. Acknowledge publicly that the market got harder. Adjust comp if quotas are materially harder. Focus on inputs they control.

Your Week-by-Week Action Plan

Monday: Pull quota attainment for the past 8 quarters. Find when the decline started (likely Q2 2022). Calculate current vs. pre-2022 average.

Tuesday: Segment pipeline by stakeholder count. Compare win rates for 2-4 stakeholders vs. 6+. Adjust qualification accordingly.

Wednesday: Review forecast assumptions. Update cycle length and conversion rates to match current reality.

Thursday: Meet with your CEO. Share industry data on quota decline and slippage. Reset expectations using external benchmarks.

Friday: Communicate to your team. Validate their effort, share context, outline what's changing.

The Bottom Line

Your team isn't underperforming. The benchmarks are out of date.

The macro forces that started in 2022—interest rates, financial gatekeepers, AI uncertainty—aren't going away. But sales leaders who acknowledge the shift and adapt are protecting their teams and rebuilding forecast credibility.

You're not failing. The rules changed. Time to update your playbook.

One more thing: While you're adapting your sales approach, your RevOps team is facing a parallel shift. The manual work that defined revenue operations is being automated by AI systems—and the skills required are changing fast. If you want to understand what's happening in ops, read: Your RevOps Job Description Changed Last Year. Nobody Told You.

About 1337 Sales

1337 Sales builds low-code and agentic solutions for businesses modernizing their revenue operations. We help sales leaders navigate market shifts by building intelligent systems that adapt to changing buyer behaviors.